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The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache

The Blank Swan: The End of Probability Elie Ayache ebook
Publisher: Wiley
Page: 496
ISBN: 9780470725221
Format: pdf

A prediction can be made on the balance of probabilities or apparent trends, but in the end the pressures for change do not produce change. A volatile unstable situation continues to be volatile and unstable. Jul 20, 2010 - According to Bloomberg, Taleb spent many years asserting that bankers were becoming blind to black swans (also known as tail-end risks, named for the outliers in a the oft-used bell curve) and looking back instead of forward, obscuring their view of future market changes. Instead, a coordinated attack on utilities that destroys expensive infrastructure and results in widespread blackouts could very well be a high-probability event, given the industry's lack of preparedness. May 1, 2011 - The Blank Swan: The End of Probability By Elie Ayache Wiley, 2010 $39.95, 476 pages. Jan 21, 2010 - How do you end up with high-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations? Elie Ayache's book, "The Blank Swan," has been hailed by one reviewer as "a joke…written in pseudo-philosophical jargon. He was vindicated—but surely Past economic patterns can be (and are) analyzed endlessly and used to create probability models for the future. Mark Lowenthal's comment on Black Swans also illuminates an important . Mar 12, 2014 - The potential threat has already moved beyond the realm of the Black Swan, the term used to describe extremely rare, but highly consequential events that are difficult to anticipate and can result in truly catastrophic outcomes. Apr 23, 2014 - Kris Wheaton's reflection on his class discussion (How to Analyze Black Swans) is useful in understanding the challenge of elaborating future possibilities in intelligence assessments.